I think this song is about a divorce/split, which involved a ruined event/celebration (perhaps a wedding). He takes the blame for everything, for being fake and admits it for the millionth time. The song beautifully captures the tragedy and regret involved.
But the most interesting aspect is the implication that things could have been different. If he had made a 'great speech' perhaps it would have changed something. And while he laments about her new lover ('the eyes that watch you') he thinks about 'the changes' he has made: implying that although he was to blame, some of those problems don't exist anymore.
I think this song is about a divorce/split, which involved a ruined event/celebration (perhaps a wedding). He takes the blame for everything, for being fake and admits it for the millionth time. The song beautifully captures the tragedy and regret involved.
But the most interesting aspect is the implication that things could have been different. If he had made a 'great speech' perhaps it would have changed something. And while he laments about her new lover ('the eyes that watch you') he thinks about 'the changes' he has made: implying that although he was to blame, some of those problems don't exist anymore.