I'm not going to say the song is "obviously" about anything, because like any great song, its meaning isn't immediately obvious, but needs to be seen in relation to the listener. On the surface it is about a failed relationship, but within there are symbolic references to Newfoundland Independence. So really, the song has two layers, two meanings. The real meaning is decided by the listener - how does this relate to you?
I'm not going to say the song is "obviously" about anything, because like any great song, its meaning isn't immediately obvious, but needs to be seen in relation to the listener. On the surface it is about a failed relationship, but within there are symbolic references to Newfoundland Independence. So really, the song has two layers, two meanings. The real meaning is decided by the listener - how does this relate to you?