This is Caroline talking about John's addiction. He repents and goes sober for a while, but the underlying addiction keeps its grip on him and so he's just "going through the motions" of rehab, while as soon as he's out of the program he'll "go under like a submarine". And he lacks self-awareness so much that he "won't see it coming". She, on the other hand, can see some bad end coming -- "the big finale" -- that is the direct result of him just miming sobriety.
The song begins with an arresting exclamation, "Something isn't right!" and carries on with a lot of strength and force. Often in other songs we find the voice of Caroline speaking almost as if stunned, in short declarative sentences, but here she is perceptive and cynical, not buying John's "dog and pony show", his salesman's patter. She is trying to offer him a shiny alternate future, "up there in San Rafael", but unless he really confronts his addiction she'll "never see him well". Then she warns him of the negative future she can see if he doesn't change his ways. This is one of Caroline's strongest songs as a character.
This is Caroline talking about John's addiction. He repents and goes sober for a while, but the underlying addiction keeps its grip on him and so he's just "going through the motions" of rehab, while as soon as he's out of the program he'll "go under like a submarine". And he lacks self-awareness so much that he "won't see it coming". She, on the other hand, can see some bad end coming -- "the big finale" -- that is the direct result of him just miming sobriety.
The song begins with an arresting exclamation, "Something isn't right!" and carries on with a lot of strength and force. Often in other songs we find the voice of Caroline speaking almost as if stunned, in short declarative sentences, but here she is perceptive and cynical, not buying John's "dog and pony show", his salesman's patter. She is trying to offer him a shiny alternate future, "up there in San Rafael", but unless he really confronts his addiction she'll "never see him well". Then she warns him of the negative future she can see if he doesn't change his ways. This is one of Caroline's strongest songs as a character.