It does seem to be a song about suicide. The narrator, an alcoholic boxer named John (which we know from the rest of the album, "The Forgotten Arm"), is going to go sober for one last Christmas and then he's "through", "done". The most poignant part is at the end:
And that once upon a time
I believed it was a victimless crime
This might refer to John's alcoholism, or his imminent suicide, and it seems to recognise that Caroline will be the victim in either case. He says he's sorry "that I made you a witness to my moral decay". The song is shot through with weariness and self-disgust, which is in ironic counterpoint to the honkytonk piano and generally upbeat sound, almost as if John were singing his own lyrics to a song he was listening to in a bar.
It does seem to be a song about suicide. The narrator, an alcoholic boxer named John (which we know from the rest of the album, "The Forgotten Arm"), is going to go sober for one last Christmas and then he's "through", "done". The most poignant part is at the end:
And that once upon a time I believed it was a victimless crime
This might refer to John's alcoholism, or his imminent suicide, and it seems to recognise that Caroline will be the victim in either case. He says he's sorry "that I made you a witness to my moral decay". The song is shot through with weariness and self-disgust, which is in ironic counterpoint to the honkytonk piano and generally upbeat sound, almost as if John were singing his own lyrics to a song he was listening to in a bar.