ContinuousSpectrum has it exactly right. The line 'Black swans on your picnic table' refers to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his Black Swan theory that 'The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.' The usual Tim Booth understated, subtle genius. Respect.
ContinuousSpectrum has it exactly right. The line 'Black swans on your picnic table' refers to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his Black Swan theory that 'The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.' The usual Tim Booth understated, subtle genius. Respect.