Lyric discussion by ichinii808 

Cover art for Moon on the Water lyrics by Beck~mongolian Chop Squad

This song is one of the most touching songs of the whole Anime, kind of tying it together.

The way I figured this song, it was about a relationship that lost it's luster and was coming to an end. He was a fool because he couldn't get himself to let go even though he knew it wouldn't work out. It could also be seen as him falling out of love with a girl, only to fall in love with his best friend who was always there for him. In this way, the old love affair could be the girl that he was with.