I was hoping to get some insight into this song, but there doesn't seem to be much out there. So here's my humble opinion: Since seeing the Nicolas Cage movie "Matchstick Men", I now know that it's a term for grifters or con men. So in this context, I think maybe the singer felt "conned" or "cheated" by a woman. Maybe she pretended to love him for financial gain? It's not necessarily guilt he feels, but shame for being fooled.
I was hoping to get some insight into this song, but there doesn't seem to be much out there. So here's my humble opinion: Since seeing the Nicolas Cage movie "Matchstick Men", I now know that it's a term for grifters or con men. So in this context, I think maybe the singer felt "conned" or "cheated" by a woman. Maybe she pretended to love him for financial gain? It's not necessarily guilt he feels, but shame for being fooled.