Lyric discussion by JPardizzle 

I really really love this song. It's probably one of my favorites by Modest Mouse. My interpretation is that he has been caught doing something bad. I just kind of imagine them in a car, after she found out he cheated on her, and they're sitting in awkward silence. I think that he needs to distract his mouth from talking, hence the "shut ups" by smoking cigarettes. I think his idea of carton of cigarettes, as opposed to just a pack symbolizes the long journey or the awkwardness of the relationship. It seems he stresses carton because he would need so many cigarettes so keep himself from saying something stupid. I think that it's possibly his actions, like his cheating, that he blames as his guilty (red) hand's weight. I think the sending of the notes, is like his unspoken apology. I think the metaphor of the cage symbolizes his self pity and personal remorse. But hey, what do I know?

That sounds pretty spot-on actually

An error occured.