Lyric discussion by Slayton 

Cover art for Lulliby lyrics by Regina Spektor

I think this is just a rumination on 'the one that got away' - how s/he can't forget him/her even as time/seasons pass:

"toenails changing color like the leaves of fall" A reference to both the changing of time ("leaves of fall") and personal changes ("toenails" - different colors of nail polish).

"fire hydrant covered in snow" How the seasons change, again - fire hydrant being a metaphor for cool refreshment in summer eventually being covered in winter's snow.

"Looking out the window at another window" - S/he feels detached from her/himself since being away from this person.