Lyric discussion by turtlenate 

Cover art for Cold Beer and Cigarettes lyrics by David Bazan

I think the biographical take is a bit of a stretch, he surely doesn't have children nor would he probably consider himself an adulterer. What I take out of it is just the lesson that things never go as planned, and how a whole bunch of seemingly minor random events can sometimes come together to snowball into something much bigger. Mostly its just a great song.