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The Decemberists – Dear Avery Lyrics 15 years ago
You do make a valid point, but I still think it would be unusual, because when Colin writes songs that are not autobiographical or necessarily true, they're usually heavily based on a literary work, or else whimsical in some way. This is a sadder song, so it makes sense to me that it might be autobiographical. Just a theory though.

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The Decemberists – Dear Avery Lyrics 15 years ago
I think this song might be about a dog, for a couple reasons. First, Colin Meloy only has one child, a son who's only 4 years old, so writing a song about a teenage son seems out of place for him. Also, a dog on the cusp of its teens is getting up there in years, and "headstrong" and "listing lazily" (listing in the sense of wavering or leaning) are indicative of someone or something old. Also, puppies are often held by the scruffs of their necks, but you couldn't do that to an old dog. Based on this, I think Avery could be a dog who is either lost, very sick, or has died.
As a side note, Colin does make reference to his son by name in the song "Rise to Me", also very beautiful.

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