• Let's start with something non controversial. I know for sure that the sun is larger than the earth. In theory, some shocking new evidence might one day show that the sun is actually very small. Then later it could turn out that we were wrong again for some even more outrageous reason, and the sun is actually very big after all. However I'm certain that no matter what people think, the sun is actually bigger than the earth. People say things like "99% certain", but I doubt that anyone really thinks in terms of percentages. In practice, I feel 100% certain. I could change my mind, but it would take a lot of evidence, and a long difficult process of readjusting my whole system of beliefs.

  It's hard to give direct evidence that the sun is larger than the earth. I have some vague idea of what measurements you could use. However the main reason for my belief is that if our astronomy was that out of whack, then our scientific method would have detected something amiss by now. So I'm deferring to the collective opinion of others. A popular sentiment says that you should figure things out for yourself, but nobody actually has the time or expertese to do that.

  I feel the same way about other scientific facts. For example, I am certain that I am related to my neighbor's cat. It's not obvious, and I'd have trouble proving it, but I know it is a central part of a large theory that holds together and is supported by a massive amount of evidence. Evolution has no direct effect on my life, but I do think about it and I care about it very much.

  I still haven't said anything controversial, except to some fundamentalists. Mayb'e next time.

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